How many tricks to bid in Wizard? Wizards, jesters and bids in figures
Wizard looks like Oh Hell, but two things change everything: the wizards and the jesters, which win or refuse a trick at will, and the −10 per trick off penalty, which turns a bad estimate into a hole in the score. Here is how we set our bids, with the figures we worked out for the one-card round.
In short
In Wizard, a wizard is worth almost a trick: in the one-card round with 4 players, it wins the trick 93% of the time. A trump from 10 to 13 wins 75% of the time, a low trump 51%, a non-trump 13 38% if it leads and 13% otherwise; a jester practically never wins. With 15 cards in hand, you have a 69% chance of holding at least one wizard. Since every trick off costs 10 points, it is better to underestimate by one trick than to overestimate by two.
Count your wizards first
A wizard can be played whenever you like and wins the trick, unless another wizard was played before it in the same trick. So it is almost a sure trick: count it as one, and choose when to play it. There are 4 wizards in 60 cards: on average you get one per 15 cards. With 5 cards, you have a 30% chance of holding at least one; with 10 cards, 53%; with 15 cards, 69%; with 20 cards, 81%.
The only danger is the trick where two wizards meet: the first one played wins. If you lead with a wizard, it always wins. If you have two wizards, count them both, but play the second early, before someone else gets theirs out first.
The one-card round, in figures
We simulated 200,000 deals for each number of players: trumps set by the turned-up card (chosen by the dealer if it is a wizard), the player to the dealer’s left leading. The chance of winning the trick, by your card:
| Your card | 3 players | 4 players | 5 players | 6 players |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizard | 95% | 93% | 90% | 88% |
| Trump from 10 to 13 | 82% | 75% | 68% | 61% |
| Low trump (1 to 9) | 63% | 51% | 40% | 32% |
| Non-trump 13, leading | 52% | 38% | 29% | 22% |
| Non-trump 13, not leading | 19% | 13% | 9% | 7% |
| Other non-trump card | 19% | 10% | 6% | 4% |
| Jester | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
With one card: a wizard or a high trump, bid 1; a low trump is debatable with 4 players and a no with 5 or 6; everything else, bid 0, including a 13 that is not leading. The jester is a guaranteed zero, the best bid of the round.
The jester, a weapon for making your bid
The jester never wins a trick (unless the whole trick is made of jesters, which is extremely rare). But it can be played at any time, even when you hold the suit led: it is the card that lets you refuse a trick at the moment you already have your count. With one or two jesters in hand, you can bid a little higher, since you know how to avoid extra tricks.
On the other hand, a badly placed jester is costly in the long rounds: it is a card that does nothing. With three jesters in 8 cards, count only on the other five.
The cost of mistakes: better one trick too few
Every trick off costs 10 points. A bid of 3 made brings 50; missed by one trick, it costs −10; missed by two, −20. The difference between making it and missing by one trick is therefore 60 points, and each extra trick off only costs 10 more. The consequence: when you hesitate between two bids, choose the one you are most likely to make exactly, not the one that pays most if it succeeds.
In the long rounds, middling cards (8 to 11 outside trumps) are the hardest to estimate: they win tricks once the wizards and trumps have gone, at the end of the round. Our rule: count wizards and high trumps as one trick each, non-trump 13s as a half, and ignore the rest. You underestimate slightly, which is the right side to err on.
Trumps, the dealer and the last bid
When the turned-up card is a wizard, the dealer chooses trumps after seeing their cards: naturally, they pick their longest suit. The others must take this into account: in that round, the dealer probably has several trumps and will bid high.
The dealer bids last: they know all the bids. If the others’ total is already high, the round will be contested and tricks hard to come by: a cautious bid is called for. If it is low, tricks will be left lying around and their middling cards will pick some up. With the “bids may not add up” variant, the dealer also has a forbidden value; they will choose between one trick more or one less depending on whether the round is overbid or underbid, as in Oh Hell.
The last rounds decide the game
With 4 players, the first rounds bring 20 to 40 points to whoever makes their bid; rounds 12 to 15 can bring 70 or 80 to a single player who makes a bid of 5 or 6. A 60-point gap at halfway is therefore nothing final. In the last round, with no trumps, the wizards and the 13s win most of the tricks: count them, add a long suit if there is one, and do not bet on the rest.
In the very last rounds, the leader is better off bidding tight, and those chasing should take calculated risks: a big bid made is their only way back.
In short
- Count your wizards as one trick each; play the second one early when you have two.
- With one card: a wizard or a high trump, bid 1; otherwise, bid 0.
- The jester refuses a trick at will: it lets you bid a little higher.
- One trick off costs 60 points compared with a bid made: choose the safest bid, not the most profitable.
- Wizards and high trumps: one trick; non-trump 13: a half; the rest: nothing.
- The last rounds decide: the leader bids tight, the others take risks.
Frequently asked questions
Is a wizard always worth a trick in Wizard?
Almost: it only loses if another wizard was played before it in the same trick. In the one-card round with 4 players, a wizard wins the trick 93% of the time.
Should you bid 1 with a 13 in the one-card round?
Only if it is a trump, or if you lead with 3 players. A non-trump 13 that is not leading wins only 13% of the time with 4 players.
How much does a missed bid cost in Wizard?
10 points per trick off. Since a bid made brings at least 20 points, missing by one trick makes a difference of at least 30 points, and of 60 points for a bid of 3.
What are the chances of holding a wizard?
With 4 wizards in 60 cards: 7% with one card, 30% with 5 cards, 53% with 10 cards, 69% with 15 cards and 81% with 20 cards.
Published on 21 October 2026.